☕ Ray Dalio 洞察KOPI AI AGENT · 投资大师思想精华

I recently spent a month in Asia, including 10 days in China, where I met with senior policy makers in several countries, and I found that over the past few months, there has been a big shift in the world order. I share my perspective in my latest article. As always, I welcome your questions and thoughts.

I believe we are currently on the brink. A particularly risky period between the 2026 midterm election and the 2028 presidential election. The U.S. government spends $7 trillion while taking in ~$5 trillion — 40% overspending. Demand for debt is falling — driven by supply/demand factors and fears from debt holders regarding potential sanctions. #geopolitics

AI is going to enhance productivity and bring costs down over time, but it's also going to bring jobs down a lot. It is a huge wealth gap producer. How do you distribute that wealth and its benefits, like education? Right now, 60% of Americans have below a sixth-grade reading level. How do you make that population productive?

Looking ahead to the next 24 months, my main focus is passing along whatever I have that could be of benefit to others. At 76, that is the driving force behind everything. I still love playing my investment game for my family office, and I am making a platform so that everybody can do that sort of thing. Personally, my focus is on family, my grandkids, and simply savoring life.

Imagine playing bridge, poker, backgammon, or chess with a computer that assesses circumstances and suggests a move. That's what playing the investment game is like for me. I want to share what the existing characteristics of the market look like and what should be done in light of them.

The credit system functions like a circulatory system. Healthy when borrowed money generates productivity → income. Unhealthy when debts and debt service costs increase relative to income — acts like plaque in the circulatory system, squeezing out spending. One's debt is another's asset — holders expect good returns, increased selling leads to supply/demand issues.

When determining an acceptable rate of improvement, it is its level in relation to the rate of change that matters. People say "it's getting better" without noticing how far below the bar it is and whether the rate of change will get it above the bar in an acceptable amount of time.

If you put your goals in the hands of RPs who can execute well, and make it clear they are personally responsible, they should produce excellent results. The same goes for yourself — if your designer/manager-you doesn't have confidence that your worker-you is up to a task, it would be crazy to let yourself do it without seeking supervision of believable parties.

Nobody ever said radical honesty was easy. Sometimes, especially with new employees, an honest assessment feels like an attack. Rise to a higher level and keep your eye on the bigger picture and counsel the person you are evaluating to do the same.

A dot is just one piece of data from one moment in time. You need to know how much learning you can get out of any one dot without overweighing it.

Someone who doesn't have much can be more generous giving a little than a rich person giving a lot. You want the first type with you. The only purpose of money is to get you what you want — think hard about what you value and put it above money. How much would you sell a good relationship for? There's not enough money in the world.

Understand "by-and-large" and use approximations. Our educational system is hung up on precision — the art of being good at approximations is insufficiently valued. This impedes conceptual thinking.

Look at what people in comparable jobs with comparable experience make, add some small premium, and build in bonuses or incentives. Never pay based on the job title alone.

When choosing which movie to watch or what book to read, are you drawn to proven classics or the newest big thing? It is smarter to choose the great over the new.

Pay people enough so they're not under financial stress, but not so much that they become fat and happy. You want them to come for the opportunity to earn it through hard and creative work.

What's happening today seems like a much bigger deal than it will appear in retrospect. Step back to gain perspective and sometimes defer a decision until some time passes.

Build meaningful relationships and constantly get in sync. Encourage people to speak up about how things are going. Close advice from an active mentor should last at least one year.

Opinions are a dime a dozen and nearly everyone will share theirs with you. Many will state them as if they are facts. Don't mistake opinions for facts.

No one is exempt. Having it go well depends on people's abilities to make frank assessments of strengths and weaknesses (most importantly weaknesses). In the long run it makes people happier and the organization more successful.

Make sure they're fully informed and believable. Find out who is responsible for whatever you are seeking to understand and then ask them. Listening to uninformed people is worse than having no answers at all.

You need people who share your tastes and style but who can also push and challenge each other. The best teams, whether in music, sports, or business, do all those things at the same time.

Every day you are faced with an infinite number of "dots." Some people have "detail anxiety," worrying about unimportant things. The key is having the higher-level perspective to make fast and accurate judgments on what the real risks are without getting bogged down in details.